Climate Change Forces an Impossible Choice for Fisheries: Save the Fish or Save the Jobs?

We recognized that climate change is reshaping our oceans in ways that challenge everything we know about managing fisheries. As waters warm and ecosystems shift, fish populations are responding—sometimes thriving, sometimes struggling. For managers charged with both protecting fish stocks and supporting fishing communities, the question becomes urgent: how do we adapt?

In collaboration with colleagues at NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center, we built a model to explore this dilemma. We simulated a fish population experiencing climate-driven changes in its basic biology—its growth rate, its reproductive capacity, the number of fish the environment can support. Then we asked: what happens when managers try to adapt to these changes versus sticking with traditional approaches?

Our results reveal a troubling trade-off. When we modeled a climate-adaptive management strategy—one that updates catch limits based on new information about how climate has changed fish populations—we found it generally kept fish populations healthier. Biomass remained higher, providing a buffer against future shocks. But this protection came at a cost: harvests were often similar to or lower than what traditional management would allow.

Conversely, managers who ignore climate impacts and stick to historical practices might maintain or even increase short-term catches. But this approach risks depleting populations that are already stressed by changing conditions. It's a classic tension between immediate economic benefits and long-term sustainability, intensified by climate uncertainty.

What makes this particularly challenging is that climate change doesn't affect all populations the same way. When climate increases a population's carrying capacity, adaptive management can sometimes achieve both goals—healthier populations and stable harvests. But when climate reduces productivity, something has to give. Managers, fishing communities, and policymakers will increasingly face these difficult choices as climate change accelerates.

Our findings don't prescribe a single right answer—that depends on societal values and priorities. But they do clarify the trade-offs involved, helping managers and stakeholders make more informed decisions about how to navigate fisheries management in an uncertain climate future.

Citation

Samhouri, Jameal F.; Detmer, A. Raine; Marshall, Kristin N.; Stier, Adrian C.; Berger, Aaron; Liu, Owen R.; Shelton, A. Ole (2025). Course corrections responding to climate impacts produce divergent effects on population biomass and harvest in fisheries. PLOS Climate.

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This paper is Open Access.